Making Sharp Decisions When Certainty is Not an Option

Here we go - welcome to the first issue of Pure Mettle - a newsletter for leaders who know that this moment demands their best work.

For years, I've been turning over thoughts on what it really takes to lead with courage and conviction when the stakes are high and the headwinds are strong – and I’m glad this platform exists so I can share them.

Every month, I'll share a hard-earned leadership lesson along with practical ways to put it into practice immediately. And for fun – things I'm watching!

As one of you said on LinkedIn: let's put the pedal to the ‘mettle’. So here we go.

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Early in my career, I thought great decision-making meant having all the answers.

The more data, the more analysis, the more stakeholder input, the more certainty - the better the leader. I believed that if I just worked hard enough, dug deep enough, consulted widely enough, I could eliminate risk and make the "right" call every time.

I was wrong.

And the cost of that belief? Paralysis. Missed opportunities.

Here's what nobody tells you: You'll never have perfect information. And waiting for it is a decision in itself - usually the wrong one.

We live in a world obsessed with data. And don't get me wrong - I love data. I've built data journalism teams, launched analytics-driven streaming strategies, and made multi-million dollar bets backed by research and modeling.

But here's the paradox: the more complex the decision, the less certainty the data provides.

Data can tell you what happened. It can show you patterns. It can even predict probabilities. But it cannot tell you what to do. That's on you.

The leaders I admire most aren't the ones who never make mistakes. They're the ones who make decisions when it counts - with conviction, with speed, and with the courage to course-correct when needed.

They've learned something critical: in a fast-shifting landscape, the cost of delay often outweighs the risk of being wrong.

Over the years, I've developed a framework that's helped me navigate some of the toughest calls of my career - from leading newsroom integrations to launching new businesses to making the decision to walk away from a role I loved at a company I revered.

If a decision scares you, that's often a signal it matters.

I’ve experienced this countless times when making big plays and big bets.  I also learned this personally when I was in a key role early in my career. The culture shifted. The rules changed. And for months, I convinced myself I needed to wait it out. Be resilient. See what happens. 

But the anxiety I felt every morning going into my day? That wasn't a warning to stay put. It was fuel to make a different choice.  

The absence of fear can mean you're playing it too safe. If every decision feels comfortable, you're probably not pushing hard enough. The biggest opportunities - and the most important stands - live in the discomfort zone.

Lean into it.

Look at the numbers. Understand the landscape. Talk to the people who will be impacted. Do your homework.

But when it's time to move, trust your gut.

That instinct isn't magic. It's pattern recognition. It's the accumulation of thousands of decisions, conversations, successes, and failures your conscious mind hasn't fully catalogued. It's wisdom - earned, not gifted.

One of my favorite examples comes from launching local streaming channels at ABC. The data told us there was an appetite for local content. But it couldn't tell us how to package it, what voice to use, or when to bet bigger. Those calls came from instinct - informed by data, yes, but decided by something deeper.

I often say…you'll never be as smart as you are right now. That's another leadership lesson I've learned the hard way. Knowledge is overrated. What matters more is the courage to act on what you know today, not what you might learn tomorrow.

Certainty is a myth. Perfection is a prison.

In media, we used to have the luxury of time. You could pilot a show, test a format, refine your strategy over months or years. Not anymore.

Today, the landscape shifts while you're still in the meeting. Platforms rise and fall. Audiences migrate. Competitors move. And if you're waiting for all the pieces to align perfectly before you act? You've already lost.

The best decision-makers I know share one trait: they move fast. They gather enough information to feel confident, make the call, and adjust as they go.

I've led teams through massive transformations - uniting national and local newsrooms at CBS, launching streaming strategies that reached tens of millions, building e-commerce businesses from scratch. None of those initiatives had a perfect playbook. We made decisions with incomplete information, adapted in real time, and course-corrected when we were wrong.

Speed matters. Not recklessness - speed. There's a difference.